* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 11/11/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 24 22 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 27 24 25 26 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 34 37 41 44 56 53 53 51 55 62 74 85 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 3 2 3 0 -2 0 1 1 2 -2 -10 SHEAR DIR 237 232 231 235 239 248 254 256 255 254 253 258 261 SST (C) 28.6 29.1 29.6 29.5 29.1 27.9 27.1 27.5 27.2 27.0 27.8 25.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 157 162 161 157 145 137 141 137 135 145 127 136 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.9 -54.5 -54.9 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 700-500 MB RH 56 55 52 53 54 61 61 52 41 36 36 36 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 9 8 7 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 0 -6 0 14 -31 -50 -57 -89 -92 -106 -84 200 MB DIV 32 30 20 28 32 3 -22 -16 -2 3 23 23 25 700-850 TADV 4 2 2 1 3 3 -6 -8 -9 -7 -3 19 37 LAND (KM) 310 163 20 -28 -149 -367 -50 274 351 292 347 4 393 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.7 20.4 21.3 22.1 23.7 24.3 24.2 23.8 24.0 25.0 26.4 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 107.1 105.9 105.0 104.0 101.4 98.3 95.0 91.9 89.3 86.2 82.0 76.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 13 13 12 13 14 15 14 13 14 17 23 27 HEAT CONTENT 14 21 12 37 0 0 3 5 6 5 62 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 25. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -14. -26. -39. -51. -60. -69. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -9. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -9. -14. -23. -34. -45. -54. -66. -77. -87. -92. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 11/11/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 11/11/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##