* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 11/12/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 25 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 26 26 26 27 29 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 35 39 41 43 47 47 46 44 50 59 72 85 90 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 3 3 2 4 0 2 2 -5 -13 -25 SHEAR DIR 226 233 237 241 248 245 247 244 254 254 253 260 267 SST (C) 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.2 28.7 28.0 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.6 27.4 24.3 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 161 162 158 153 145 139 141 143 143 142 111 127 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -54.3 -54.9 -56.3 -57.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 49 50 52 56 53 50 43 39 33 37 48 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -10 -20 -12 -9 -41 -61 -64 -61 -83 -110 -101 -90 200 MB DIV 0 14 11 14 -9 -16 -21 -3 -1 10 14 49 65 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 1 2 -1 -1 0 12 22 23 51 58 LAND (KM) 138 23 -52 -171 -311 -195 16 126 271 445 315 83 244 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.0 20.6 21.3 21.9 22.4 22.3 22.1 22.8 24.4 26.3 28.5 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 106.5 105.7 104.8 103.6 102.3 99.8 97.7 96.1 94.9 92.6 88.8 83.5 77.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 12 13 13 11 8 7 10 17 23 27 30 HEAT CONTENT 22 4 34 0 0 0 12 3 2 1 10 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 26. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -14. -24. -36. -48. -58. -69. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -11. -15. -23. -32. -42. -51. -62. -71. -80. -83. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 11/12/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 11/12/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##