* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972014 11/17/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 34 38 41 42 42 42 42 43 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 34 38 41 42 42 42 42 43 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 24 25 24 23 23 23 23 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 5 6 7 14 15 17 13 14 9 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 2 3 0 0 1 3 4 3 6 1 SHEAR DIR 212 138 162 177 179 199 197 200 193 202 211 217 201 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.6 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 143 142 140 145 148 149 152 148 148 149 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 71 72 72 71 71 74 72 72 69 66 64 62 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 18 14 14 15 6 -4 -8 -12 -16 -12 -6 -3 0 200 MB DIV 17 41 31 29 27 34 28 21 12 17 7 29 39 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 867 861 854 850 855 897 931 967 1024 1101 1197 1275 1355 LAT (DEG N) 7.8 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.7 9.1 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.2 LONG(DEG W) 96.4 97.5 98.6 99.6 100.5 102.5 104.4 106.1 107.7 109.1 110.7 112.0 113.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 5 3 2 10 12 11 13 16 26 36 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 31. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 18. 21. 22. 22. 22. 22. 23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972014 INVEST 11/17/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972014 INVEST 11/17/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##