* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972014 11/17/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 21 22 21 20 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 21 22 21 20 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 12 17 19 21 26 24 28 31 35 43 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 0 0 1 1 3 5 4 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 166 170 185 200 216 229 234 231 238 237 233 226 236 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 141 143 147 148 150 151 151 150 147 148 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 71 69 70 71 70 68 65 64 58 55 52 47 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 14 7 -6 -13 -20 -23 -27 -16 -5 0 -7 -10 -45 200 MB DIV 46 50 61 39 19 56 70 64 38 30 45 52 12 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 0 2 0 -1 0 2 1 0 0 -3 LAND (KM) 796 783 781 783 785 752 732 721 699 661 584 454 296 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.4 9.8 10.2 10.6 11.6 12.5 13.4 14.1 14.9 16.0 17.3 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 99.6 100.6 101.5 102.5 103.4 105.1 106.6 107.8 108.6 109.1 109.2 108.7 107.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 6 5 5 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 7 12 13 17 25 24 23 22 14 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 32. 34. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -15. -17. -18. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972014 INVEST 11/17/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972014 INVEST 11/17/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##