* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972014 11/18/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 21 20 21 20 22 22 20 19 17 16 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 21 20 21 20 22 22 20 19 17 16 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 19 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 12 16 19 15 15 13 15 18 26 25 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 1 4 6 3 3 3 5 5 4 SHEAR DIR 172 197 207 221 233 259 260 234 229 217 236 233 226 SST (C) 27.8 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 147 148 147 148 151 151 150 150 150 149 149 145 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -54.0 -54.3 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.4 -53.8 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 72 70 71 70 70 68 64 64 63 61 59 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -20 -31 -36 -34 -29 -22 -7 5 10 13 0 1 200 MB DIV 59 41 53 36 39 32 22 12 14 38 55 56 39 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 3 3 4 LAND (KM) 901 912 917 921 935 965 1002 1058 1093 1086 1091 1118 1115 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.9 10.2 10.6 10.9 11.6 12.0 12.2 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.5 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 103.5 104.6 105.6 106.6 107.5 109.1 110.4 111.5 112.3 112.6 113.0 113.8 114.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 7 7 5 3 2 3 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 15 10 8 9 11 16 30 34 24 20 17 15 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 33. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -21. -22. -23. -23. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972014 INVEST 11/18/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972014 INVEST 11/18/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##