* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972014 11/18/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 18 17 17 16 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 18 17 17 16 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 20 24 24 23 19 19 24 33 39 40 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 2 1 5 7 7 6 7 6 5 4 SHEAR DIR 208 220 228 238 252 267 265 241 235 237 245 235 240 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 149 151 152 151 151 150 148 147 144 141 139 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -54.5 -54.7 -54.3 -54.3 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 70 70 70 70 67 64 60 60 58 54 49 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -40 -42 -41 -37 -29 -23 3 0 6 -7 -11 -8 200 MB DIV 49 58 51 36 28 16 -2 3 22 45 14 24 43 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -2 -3 -1 1 3 3 4 5 5 3 LAND (KM) 897 894 905 917 937 955 1000 1043 1037 1001 1002 1038 1073 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.7 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.6 13.1 13.5 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.2 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 105.3 106.3 107.3 108.2 109.1 110.5 111.7 112.6 113.3 113.7 114.6 115.6 116.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 9 7 6 5 4 4 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 11 12 17 36 32 19 15 14 12 12 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 29. 33. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -21. -23. -23. -23. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972014 INVEST 11/18/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972014 INVEST 11/18/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##