* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972014 11/19/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 32 33 33 31 26 22 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 31 32 33 33 31 26 22 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 28 28 27 26 25 25 24 22 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 20 24 22 19 23 15 17 23 28 28 34 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 3 5 3 6 6 6 3 5 SHEAR DIR 219 227 242 256 265 282 255 236 220 241 239 253 247 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 152 152 152 151 151 150 148 146 144 141 139 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.5 -54.7 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -54.4 -54.1 -54.6 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 68 68 70 69 67 61 55 57 53 52 49 46 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -40 -38 -33 -28 -24 -7 9 8 6 -6 1 1 200 MB DIV 69 62 49 48 52 6 -3 20 42 33 1 17 49 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -3 -1 0 0 1 1 2 3 3 2 LAND (KM) 923 939 960 972 980 1017 1056 1109 1095 1100 1139 1200 1283 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 11.0 11.3 11.7 12.1 12.7 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.7 108.6 109.4 110.2 111.5 112.4 113.3 114.0 114.8 115.9 117.3 118.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 9 8 6 5 4 4 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 13 19 29 36 22 16 15 13 14 13 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -19. -21. -22. -23. -23. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 6. 1. -3. -8. -11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972014 INVEST 11/19/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972014 INVEST 11/19/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##