* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972014 11/19/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 32 33 33 30 25 21 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 31 32 33 33 30 25 21 18 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 28 28 27 26 26 25 24 23 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 20 18 20 19 17 23 27 27 31 32 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 3 1 6 4 1 5 4 5 4 4 SHEAR DIR 217 235 249 258 269 259 212 213 221 242 231 239 232 SST (C) 28.5 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 152 152 152 152 150 148 145 144 142 139 137 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -54.3 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 68 70 68 68 66 58 55 55 52 49 44 42 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -23 -13 -10 -6 -2 14 7 15 10 5 8 13 200 MB DIV 71 72 65 65 40 4 31 43 31 20 11 18 38 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 0 0 -1 2 2 2 4 5 5 5 LAND (KM) 962 980 1002 1012 1030 1070 1129 1134 1130 1170 1239 1321 1400 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.2 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.7 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.7 109.6 110.3 111.1 112.2 113.2 114.2 115.0 116.1 117.5 119.0 120.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 8 7 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 16 25 35 26 16 13 13 13 12 11 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. -22. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 5. 0. -4. -7. -10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972014 INVEST 11/19/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972014 INVEST 11/19/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##