* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972014 11/19/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 27 28 28 27 24 20 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 27 28 28 27 24 20 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 22 22 21 21 20 18 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 19 17 19 16 15 20 23 26 28 30 31 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 1 1 7 2 4 5 5 3 5 2 SHEAR DIR 236 250 261 271 271 235 210 211 235 234 237 235 231 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 151 151 152 150 147 144 143 141 138 134 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.3 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -54.3 -54.2 -54.6 -54.3 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 70 68 68 66 62 57 56 54 52 46 43 41 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -12 -8 -4 -5 9 13 13 16 8 9 8 11 200 MB DIV 72 64 61 37 17 7 46 49 26 16 11 17 38 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 -1 0 2 1 2 4 4 4 4 LAND (KM) 1006 1022 1035 1051 1072 1125 1174 1160 1181 1224 1302 1384 1459 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.0 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.6 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.9 109.7 110.5 111.2 111.8 112.8 113.9 114.8 115.8 117.0 118.4 119.9 121.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 16 25 33 32 18 14 13 13 13 11 15 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 763 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -21. -22. -22. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -12. -14. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972014 INVEST 11/19/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972014 INVEST 11/19/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##