* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972014 11/19/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 22 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 22 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 23 22 20 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 22 20 17 18 22 30 31 35 37 42 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 1 5 2 2 4 4 6 7 8 2 SHEAR DIR 249 256 269 269 254 218 212 221 228 229 246 242 256 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 151 152 151 148 145 144 142 139 136 129 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 68 67 65 61 57 54 54 51 48 44 43 40 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -3 1 2 8 21 8 13 5 9 11 10 0 200 MB DIV 65 73 58 26 14 32 35 43 29 40 38 32 26 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 -1 -1 1 2 2 3 5 4 7 7 LAND (KM) 1009 1020 1037 1060 1085 1137 1149 1145 1176 1237 1313 1365 1436 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.6 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.3 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.6 111.2 111.8 112.3 113.3 114.3 115.1 116.2 117.6 119.1 120.6 122.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 19 27 36 33 25 15 13 13 13 12 11 14 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -17. -21. -25. -27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972014 INVEST 11/19/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972014 INVEST 11/19/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##