* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972014 11/20/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 27 27 25 20 20 27 34 41 40 38 40 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 3 5 4 9 7 3 4 5 5 -2 SHEAR DIR 257 267 270 268 248 233 228 227 232 245 250 271 281 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 150 150 149 146 144 141 138 135 132 128 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -54.0 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 64 62 58 55 53 50 50 49 44 42 40 39 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -3 -5 -1 3 4 0 -3 -12 -2 -1 -5 -8 200 MB DIV 76 45 31 25 28 50 20 35 8 4 5 8 3 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 LAND (KM) 986 998 1016 1028 1043 1062 1019 1011 1029 1080 1128 1164 1215 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.9 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.3 111.8 112.2 112.6 113.4 113.9 114.6 115.6 116.8 117.9 119.0 120.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 5 5 4 4 3 5 6 6 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 36 41 33 25 20 15 14 11 11 8 5 6 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 779 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 29. 30. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -15. -19. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -15. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -14. -18. -24. -28. -31. -31. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972014 INVEST 11/20/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972014 INVEST 11/20/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##