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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 23 2015
 
convection has once again flared up around kilo and this current
burst is similar in areal coverage and intensity to what was seen
sunday morning at sunrise. was tempted to increase kilo back to
tropical storm strength however given the cyclic nature of the
convection over the past 48 hours will wait and see if the current
flare up will persist. THE LATEST DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED over the past two cycles.  HFO AND JTWC
remain AT 2.0 AND SAB is keeping 2.5. THE INTENSITY OF KILO WILL
REMAIN AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. THE AIRCRAFT FROM THE
53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON WILL NOT
CONDUCT A MISSION TONIGHT AND HAVE SWITCHED TO A ONCE PER DAY
FLIGHTS. THE NEXT FLIGHT IS SCHEDULED TO SUPPORT THE 00z FORECAST
PACKAGE TOMORROW.

the 06Z fix positions were in better agreement and indicate the
northwest turn we have been expecting for some time may finally
have started. the track guidance envelope shifted
slightly to the left or west once again through 48 hours. the
official track was nudged west accordingly...placing kilo closer to
johnston island in the 24-48 hour time frame and a tropical storm
watch has been issued. from 72 hours and beyond...track guidance
from the dynamical models suggest a dramatic turn toward the
west...in response to global models suggesting more robust
ridging building in north of kilo after loke shoots quickly
northward. as a result the forecast track in days 3 through
5 was shifted west...though not as much as suggested by some of
members like the GFs...ecmwf...and hwrf. 
 
KILO REMAINS OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ABUNDANT
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...AND UNDER LOW ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. KILO HAS
THUS FAR FOUGHT OFF ALL THREE. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
IS STILL EXPECTED through 48 hours and kilo is still expected to
reach minumum hurricane strength in 72 hours. the 96 and 120 hour
in intensity was lowered in response to increasing shear partly
due to the aforementioned stronger ridging.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND SINCE
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PAST CLOSELY TO THE EAST OF IT. INTERESTS
IN THE WESTERN MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT...SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KILO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0900Z 14.8N 166.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 15.3N 167.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 16.1N 168.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 17.1N 168.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 18.0N 168.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 18.9N 169.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 19.6N 169.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 20.2N 170.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Tanabe
 
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