* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 05/06/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 35 40 45 54 59 62 61 58 54 52 51 V (KT) LAND 25 29 35 40 45 54 59 62 61 47 35 29 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 30 32 36 43 49 43 33 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 35 28 28 28 22 14 7 4 18 19 21 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 2 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 -4 -4 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 232 226 220 231 243 235 277 320 342 342 355 354 346 SST (C) 27.0 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.6 25.2 24.7 23.9 22.7 21.8 20.1 16.8 11.5 POT. INT. (KT) 124 119 115 112 108 104 100 95 87 83 77 70 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 105 100 96 93 89 85 81 76 72 69 65 61 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -56.1 -57.0 -57.1 -57.2 -57.8 -58.0 -58.3 -58.3 -58.7 -59.2 -59.3 -59.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 5 4 6 4 6 2 700-500 MB RH 55 54 52 50 50 52 50 52 50 51 57 63 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 14 14 16 18 19 18 16 13 11 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -24 -9 -7 -29 -7 -20 -14 -60 -58 -72 -43 -26 200 MB DIV 54 27 74 57 28 45 5 11 -29 -19 -2 4 0 700-850 TADV 11 11 15 4 4 5 0 2 1 0 2 12 0 LAND (KM) 113 139 195 235 290 308 244 148 59 -29 -119 -180 -117 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 27.5 28.5 29.2 29.8 30.8 31.7 32.7 33.4 34.1 34.9 36.0 37.1 LONG(DEG W) 79.0 78.8 78.6 78.3 78.0 77.5 77.4 77.6 78.1 78.6 78.8 78.4 77.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 7 6 5 4 5 4 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 2 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 14. 14. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 25. 29. 31. 33. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 7. 5. 2. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 20. 29. 34. 37. 36. 33. 29. 27. 26. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 05/06/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 05/06/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 05/06/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)