* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 05/06/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 47 52 55 52 50 46 45 43 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 47 52 55 52 50 39 33 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 34 40 46 49 41 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 29 29 22 17 11 6 9 20 26 18 19 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 -2 -3 -1 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 235 229 244 251 250 261 302 329 2 343 343 346 355 SST (C) 26.9 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.6 25.2 24.7 23.9 22.9 21.8 21.4 21.6 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 122 118 114 111 108 104 100 94 88 82 81 83 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 103 98 95 92 88 85 81 76 72 71 73 71 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -56.4 -56.6 -56.5 -56.9 -57.2 -57.5 -57.7 -58.0 -58.2 -58.7 -58.7 -58.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 6 4 7 4 7 4 700-500 MB RH 53 52 49 48 50 49 49 47 47 52 59 64 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 15 18 18 18 17 14 11 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -3 -3 -31 -19 -10 -25 -18 -51 -53 -75 -48 -61 200 MB DIV 44 64 37 18 26 14 -12 -11 -20 -4 -14 13 -30 700-850 TADV 13 14 7 2 5 3 2 1 0 -1 2 11 7 LAND (KM) 71 97 136 162 201 274 268 186 114 43 -11 -25 -55 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.6 28.4 28.9 29.4 30.1 30.8 31.6 32.1 32.6 33.2 34.0 34.9 LONG(DEG W) 79.4 79.3 79.2 79.0 78.8 78.4 78.3 78.4 78.9 79.4 79.5 78.8 77.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 5 5 4 3 4 3 3 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 3 19 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 11. 13. 14. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 17. 20. 23. 27. 28. 31. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -3. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 22. 27. 30. 27. 25. 21. 20. 18. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 05/06/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 05/06/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 05/06/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED