* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 05/06/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 47 51 51 50 47 46 43 41 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 47 51 51 41 32 29 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 37 42 37 31 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 28 27 22 16 12 8 8 20 17 22 14 20 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 0 -2 -1 -2 -3 -4 -3 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 221 234 239 237 239 301 337 344 350 351 352 353 18 SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.2 25.9 25.4 24.3 23.3 22.2 21.2 20.8 20.8 20.9 16.7 POT. INT. (KT) 116 114 114 112 108 98 91 85 80 77 79 82 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 97 99 98 93 84 78 74 70 67 70 73 67 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.9 -56.8 -57.6 -58.0 -58.1 -58.1 -58.2 -58.7 -59.1 -59.1 -59.2 -59.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 3 5 4 6 4 7 4 7 700-500 MB RH 53 50 49 51 52 45 46 49 52 54 58 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 18 19 20 20 18 16 14 12 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 -17 -5 7 -17 -23 -50 -66 -89 -89 -114 -92 200 MB DIV 82 43 22 28 47 -1 -4 -29 -11 -14 20 2 7 700-850 TADV 13 7 5 5 7 1 0 0 2 2 9 1 12 LAND (KM) 160 203 244 287 349 207 121 45 -26 -59 -56 -74 -10 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 7 9 8 5 4 4 3 1 4 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 19. 23. 27. 30. 32. 35. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 22. 26. 26. 25. 22. 21. 18. 16. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 05/06/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 05/06/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 05/06/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED