* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 05/07/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 37 41 46 49 49 49 45 44 38 36 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 37 41 46 49 39 31 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 28 29 34 39 34 29 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 26 20 17 11 8 6 11 22 22 20 19 19 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -3 -5 -3 -3 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 222 233 240 239 257 329 336 349 348 4 2 18 15 SST (C) 25.5 25.2 24.9 24.6 24.3 23.0 22.5 21.7 19.8 18.4 18.0 13.6 9.2 POT. INT. (KT) 109 106 103 100 98 89 85 82 75 71 71 66 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 91 88 85 83 76 74 72 67 64 65 63 61 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -57.7 -58.3 -58.5 -58.7 -58.6 -58.6 -58.8 -58.9 -59.1 -58.9 -59.0 -58.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 4 4 2 6 3 7 3 7 4 5 700-500 MB RH 50 49 52 51 48 47 48 51 55 58 63 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 19 20 20 20 20 18 16 14 12 10 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -32 -15 5 -3 -40 -40 -54 -61 -91 -87 -99 -65 200 MB DIV 65 8 39 24 8 -1 -9 -36 6 5 -24 3 31 700-850 TADV 3 1 4 4 0 1 0 1 8 7 11 4 32 LAND (KM) 302 316 287 246 189 76 35 -32 -121 -170 -149 -120 -44 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 5 3 3 4 3 3 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 10 CX,CY: 2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 8. 6. 3. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 35. 37. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 16. 21. 24. 24. 24. 20. 19. 13. 11. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 05/07/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 05/07/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 05/07/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED