* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 05/07/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 42 45 48 49 48 46 45 45 46 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 42 45 48 39 32 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 43 47 40 32 28 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 16 12 7 3 5 15 18 20 13 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 -4 -4 -3 -4 -5 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 237 223 242 301 346 348 1 350 15 360 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.7 24.5 24.0 23.3 22.3 21.8 21.4 20.6 19.8 19.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 101 99 95 91 84 81 80 77 74 72 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 86 87 84 81 78 73 71 70 68 66 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.5 -58.0 -58.3 -58.3 -58.2 -58.3 -58.5 -58.6 -59.0 -59.1 -59.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 3 5 4 6 3 6 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 48 49 45 43 46 50 53 55 63 58 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 21 20 19 19 17 16 14 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -19 4 -2 -33 -25 -34 -28 -64 -58 -88 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 35 12 13 -6 -12 -16 -16 -6 5 1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 0 0 0 2 5 5 7 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 292 248 217 173 129 52 17 -18 -72 -113 -135 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 5 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 18. 21. 25. 29. 32. 34. 36. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -11. -14. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 15. 18. 19. 18. 16. 16. 15. 16. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 05/07/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 05/07/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 05/07/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED