* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 05/07/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 43 45 48 50 51 49 48 44 41 41 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 43 45 48 50 51 49 48 37 36 36 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 42 44 49 53 54 53 52 43 42 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 18 13 9 4 4 11 22 20 18 15 15 17 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 0 0 0 -3 -2 -3 -2 -3 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 240 227 253 297 299 346 349 340 354 347 15 351 342 SST (C) 25.2 24.9 24.6 24.5 24.3 24.1 23.9 23.7 23.3 22.8 19.5 16.2 14.9 POT. INT. (KT) 103 101 98 97 95 94 92 91 90 89 77 71 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 86 83 81 80 79 78 77 77 78 71 67 67 200 MB T (C) -57.6 -57.8 -57.8 -57.8 -57.7 -58.1 -58.6 -58.7 -59.1 -59.0 -59.3 -59.1 -59.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 3 3 6 4 6 4 7 4 6 2 700-500 MB RH 50 49 46 44 46 48 51 55 58 61 64 68 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 20 20 18 17 16 14 12 10 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR -24 0 1 -19 -25 -19 -36 -38 -74 -73 -92 -72 -44 200 MB DIV 38 12 7 -2 -11 -2 -28 9 -7 -13 -16 23 34 700-850 TADV 3 3 1 0 0 0 2 3 5 5 11 31 20 LAND (KM) 308 271 236 222 207 188 170 149 122 48 -28 76 194 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 3 1 2 1 1 1 2 6 10 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 2. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 17. 21. 25. 29. 32. 34. 36. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -15. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. 14. 13. 9. 6. 6. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 05/07/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 05/07/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 05/07/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)