* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 05/07/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 45 46 48 48 46 43 40 37 33 33 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 45 46 48 48 46 43 35 30 31 31 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 46 48 51 53 52 51 43 34 38 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 14 11 6 3 10 21 18 24 13 18 11 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 -3 -2 -1 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 221 253 331 334 342 342 356 351 15 14 15 13 271 SST (C) 24.9 24.7 24.5 24.4 24.2 24.2 23.9 23.5 22.8 21.7 15.7 14.4 8.5 POT. INT. (KT) 101 99 97 96 94 94 93 91 88 84 70 70 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 85 83 81 80 79 79 79 78 77 75 66 67 65 200 MB T (C) -58.3 -58.0 -58.0 -58.0 -57.9 -58.0 -58.6 -58.5 -58.7 -58.8 -58.6 -58.6 -58.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 6 5 6 4 6 5 7 2 2 700-500 MB RH 49 45 42 44 44 45 49 51 57 57 61 63 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 20 19 18 17 15 12 9 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 7 5 -16 -21 -7 -29 -36 -81 -83 -116 -90 -26 36 200 MB DIV 17 0 -14 -31 -1 -13 -4 -10 -32 -2 -11 43 43 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 0 0 0 3 1 3 1 17 -5 68 LAND (KM) 274 248 222 211 200 193 172 143 62 -12 -46 101 97 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 5 8 12 16 19 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. 35. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 3. 0. -3. -7. -7. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 05/07/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 05/07/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 05/07/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)