* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 05/08/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 42 43 45 45 43 42 39 39 41 42 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 42 43 45 45 43 37 31 28 32 33 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 43 45 48 49 49 49 34 29 33 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 11 10 6 9 14 21 20 17 15 11 14 7 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 -4 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 249 330 359 337 337 349 334 4 347 27 348 273 254 SST (C) 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.5 24.4 23.9 23.5 22.6 21.5 20.7 15.8 11.9 9.5 POT. INT. (KT) 98 97 96 96 96 93 90 86 82 80 70 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 81 81 80 81 78 77 75 73 72 67 66 66 200 MB T (C) -57.8 -57.8 -58.1 -58.1 -58.2 -58.8 -58.5 -59.0 -58.7 -58.9 -58.6 -58.7 -58.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 6 6 4 7 4 8 4 7 3 1 700-500 MB RH 45 42 42 43 44 47 51 53 57 60 65 58 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 15 14 11 8 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -13 -19 -8 -18 -44 -50 -92 -86 -94 -72 -46 57 200 MB DIV 6 -18 -15 0 3 -31 -16 0 -14 8 48 27 35 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 1 -1 2 1 0 20 -21 51 LAND (KM) 252 240 229 222 215 171 143 79 -6 -94 -159 31 126 LAT (DEG N) 31.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 5 8 12 18 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 18. 21. 25. 29. 32. 34. 36. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -12. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. 2. -1. -1. 1. 2. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 05/08/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 05/08/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 05/08/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED