* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA AL012015 05/08/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 42 42 41 39 38 37 39 39 47 45 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 42 42 41 39 31 28 32 32 40 39 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 43 44 45 45 36 30 34 38 44 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 15 19 20 19 22 15 16 13 16 6 28 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -3 -4 -2 -3 -3 0 -3 -1 7 14 SHEAR DIR 332 335 346 351 351 356 9 12 8 353 285 243 248 SST (C) 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.3 23.9 22.9 21.8 21.5 18.3 16.5 12.3 7.5 1.5 POT. INT. (KT) 98 98 98 96 94 88 83 83 75 74 71 71 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 82 82 82 80 76 73 73 70 70 69 70 N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.1 -58.2 -58.4 -58.6 -58.7 -58.7 -58.8 -59.1 -59.2 -59.1 -58.8 -58.0 -57.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 6 5 7 5 8 3 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 44 45 48 50 54 60 62 66 73 61 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 18 17 15 12 12 10 11 10 18 21 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -13 -26 -38 -38 -72 -79 -95 -84 -54 22 105 53 200 MB DIV -32 1 -27 -24 -11 -25 -7 15 8 22 42 48 19 700-850 TADV 0 3 1 2 4 0 4 -1 18 12 30 44 116 LAND (KM) 258 247 236 204 172 97 17 -53 -73 118 204 224 165 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.6 31.7 31.9 32.1 32.7 33.4 34.3 35.6 37.6 40.1 42.9 45.7 LONG(DEG W) 77.4 77.5 77.5 77.8 78.0 78.5 79.0 78.7 77.2 74.1 69.2 61.7 51.5 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 7 12 20 27 35 39 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 18. 21. 25. 29. 33. 35. 36. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -5. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -1. -1. 7. 5. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012015 ANA 05/08/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012015 ANA 05/08/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012015 ANA 05/08/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)