* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA AL012015 05/09/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 51 50 46 43 40 38 38 41 44 29 V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 51 50 46 37 31 31 32 35 38 23 V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 54 54 54 52 42 33 33 36 42 47 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 24 21 20 18 16 12 16 5 19 39 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -3 0 -2 -1 -1 -3 -1 3 18 15 SHEAR DIR 333 341 344 351 348 11 360 29 354 350 239 259 267 SST (C) 24.6 24.5 24.4 24.0 23.5 22.4 22.0 19.7 13.6 13.8 8.1 4.5 6.6 POT. INT. (KT) 98 97 97 95 92 85 84 78 69 72 70 71 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 81 81 80 79 74 74 71 66 69 69 71 71 200 MB T (C) -58.4 -58.5 -58.8 -58.8 -58.7 -59.3 -58.8 -59.5 -59.0 -59.1 -58.4 -57.2 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 6 7 4 8 5 5 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 44 46 49 51 55 59 63 68 67 57 62 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 17 17 14 13 11 9 10 12 21 17 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -31 -44 -42 -57 -97 -93 -99 -56 -13 70 67 15 200 MB DIV 4 -19 -23 -8 -23 -3 -4 1 20 14 60 34 4 700-850 TADV 4 2 3 4 2 3 5 5 18 12 15 177 185 LAND (KM) 239 223 204 166 128 39 -23 -71 15 173 179 235 666 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.1 32.2 32.5 32.8 33.5 34.1 35.3 37.1 39.4 41.9 44.7 47.6 LONG(DEG W) 77.3 77.4 77.5 77.7 77.9 78.4 78.4 77.5 75.7 71.7 65.2 55.7 43.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 4 3 5 9 16 24 32 40 43 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 23. 27. 31. 34. 36. 36. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -12. -11. -2. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -9. -6. -21. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012015 ANA 05/09/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012015 ANA 05/09/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012015 ANA 05/09/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)