* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA AL012015 05/09/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 49 47 43 40 36 36 35 35 34 34 V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 49 47 37 31 28 31 31 30 29 29 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 52 52 51 41 33 29 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 21 19 21 20 15 17 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -2 0 0 -4 -2 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 333 346 344 349 357 8 11 21 355 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 24.1 23.8 23.1 22.4 21.6 21.2 15.7 11.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 95 93 90 86 82 82 69 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 82 80 80 77 75 72 72 66 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.5 -58.7 -58.8 -58.8 -59.1 -58.9 -59.3 -59.2 -58.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 7 7 4 7 5 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 44 46 49 52 59 60 62 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 18 18 17 14 12 10 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -42 -43 -61 -88 -85 -101 -97 -79 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -26 -23 -15 -13 -6 -12 17 -1 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 3 4 0 0 4 0 19 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 204 178 152 105 57 -25 -66 -90 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.2 32.4 32.6 33.0 33.3 34.0 34.7 36.1 37.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.5 77.6 77.8 78.1 78.5 78.8 78.2 76.9 75.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 4 5 4 4 6 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 30. 34. 36. 38. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012015 ANA 05/09/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012015 ANA 05/09/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012015 ANA 05/09/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)