* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902015 05/22/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 33 38 42 51 59 66 68 70 71 71 70 V (KT) LAND 25 30 33 38 42 51 59 66 68 70 71 71 70 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 32 35 41 50 60 68 73 75 73 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 25 25 20 14 13 17 19 20 14 9 5 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -5 -8 -9 -4 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 104 97 90 80 71 89 82 90 108 133 146 129 138 SST (C) 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 155 159 160 161 161 159 155 151 145 140 136 134 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 82 77 76 76 77 73 69 63 63 55 56 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 52 47 58 66 71 54 15 -3 -17 -23 -30 -26 200 MB DIV 207 155 121 111 77 68 47 45 37 51 37 39 17 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2574 2531 2490 2453 2418 2314 2212 2111 2017 1929 1858 1787 1694 LAT (DEG N) 6.0 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.8 6.4 7.2 7.8 8.3 8.7 LONG(DEG W) 135.5 136.1 136.7 137.4 138.0 139.3 140.4 141.3 141.9 142.2 142.5 142.9 143.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 28 36 43 50 56 57 52 39 27 19 16 13 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 32. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 16. 15. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 13. 17. 26. 34. 41. 43. 45. 46. 46. 45. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST 05/22/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 134.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902015 INVEST 05/22/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##