* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902015 05/23/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 36 44 53 59 58 56 53 50 47 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 36 44 53 59 58 56 53 50 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 33 40 48 54 56 53 48 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 18 8 7 12 8 5 3 3 9 10 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 -1 -2 -4 -1 -1 -2 -5 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 78 80 55 29 12 91 85 135 263 258 264 251 248 SST (C) 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.4 28.9 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 159 161 162 163 161 158 152 147 144 141 139 137 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 77 77 76 73 73 69 66 67 62 65 59 64 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 48 52 52 47 24 7 4 -5 -1 -10 -7 -14 200 MB DIV 134 138 121 100 84 53 34 45 47 57 55 66 69 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1 LAND (KM) 2555 2522 2490 2437 2385 2252 2116 1974 1838 1703 1553 1392 1221 LAT (DEG N) 5.4 5.2 4.9 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.8 6.5 7.2 8.0 8.7 9.4 LONG(DEG W) 136.2 136.8 137.4 138.1 138.8 140.3 141.8 143.2 144.3 145.4 146.6 148.1 149.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 46 53 58 61 63 61 45 33 27 19 12 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 32. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 8. 4. 1. -3. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 11. 19. 28. 34. 33. 31. 28. 25. 22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST 05/23/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902015 INVEST 05/23/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##