* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 05/23/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 41 44 39 32 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 41 44 39 32 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 31 32 31 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 1 5 7 13 21 29 38 42 43 39 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -2 2 4 3 4 5 3 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 177 179 351 290 252 228 219 220 229 246 249 256 265 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.6 27.0 25.7 24.6 24.1 23.6 23.5 23.5 23.9 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 148 141 134 120 107 102 98 97 96 99 104 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 79 79 77 74 73 68 64 60 56 52 50 48 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 12 13 12 11 9 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 41 47 44 40 35 6 0 -6 -19 -35 -45 -47 -32 200 MB DIV 186 142 102 98 115 81 71 68 62 25 -13 -7 0 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -1 0 1 3 2 3 0 -6 -12 -11 LAND (KM) 2194 2223 2260 2296 2328 2345 2329 2260 2096 1899 1713 1628 1610 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.7 11.3 12.1 12.8 14.1 15.3 16.3 17.6 18.5 19.0 18.7 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 126.0 127.2 128.3 129.5 130.6 132.2 133.1 133.1 132.2 130.6 128.8 127.5 126.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 12 9 6 6 8 9 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 34 30 24 16 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 12. 15. 16. 18. 18. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. -2. -8. -13. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 15. 7. -7. -21. -33. -41. -48. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 05/23/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 128.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 76% is 5.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 55% is 6.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 31% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 31% is 7.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 05/23/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##