* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902015 05/23/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 47 53 56 55 53 49 47 44 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 47 53 56 55 53 49 47 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 39 46 52 53 50 46 42 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 5 7 7 6 10 7 9 9 14 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 -2 -4 -4 -2 1 1 0 2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 82 34 34 55 83 98 153 177 200 209 216 235 237 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.0 28.4 27.9 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 162 162 160 153 147 141 135 133 131 131 131 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 76 73 70 68 66 64 65 59 57 51 52 48 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 61 54 48 30 15 12 10 9 3 3 1 -6 200 MB DIV 133 102 99 65 61 66 55 59 20 21 19 5 -17 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -7 LAND (KM) 2476 2419 2362 2290 2219 2071 1931 1813 1695 1577 1461 1340 1213 LAT (DEG N) 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.6 6.2 6.9 7.7 8.6 9.4 10.0 10.4 10.7 LONG(DEG W) 137.3 138.0 138.6 139.3 140.1 141.4 142.5 143.2 143.8 144.5 145.4 146.6 148.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 54 55 54 52 48 32 21 14 9 7 3 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 22. 28. 31. 30. 28. 24. 22. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST 05/23/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 60% is 4.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 46% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 28% is 7.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902015 INVEST 05/23/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##