* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 05/23/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 12 18 29 36 38 39 40 35 31 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 0 3 0 0 2 7 3 0 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 163 218 215 211 220 223 225 229 243 247 258 259 256 SST (C) 28.3 27.5 26.8 26.2 25.6 24.7 24.1 23.9 23.9 24.0 24.4 24.7 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 140 132 125 118 108 102 100 100 100 103 106 108 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 77 74 71 70 67 64 59 55 49 47 43 37 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 29 23 20 8 -6 -10 -12 -29 -44 -35 -44 -31 8 200 MB DIV 107 83 73 88 72 47 46 64 39 0 -3 -6 3 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -7 -12 -9 -11 LAND (KM) 2134 2161 2193 2185 2182 2138 2058 1921 1778 1650 1633 1672 1741 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.6 13.3 14.0 14.6 15.9 16.9 17.8 18.3 18.5 18.1 17.7 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 127.2 128.3 129.3 130.0 130.6 131.3 131.2 130.3 129.0 127.6 127.0 127.1 127.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 11 9 8 6 6 6 7 5 2 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 22 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -5. -12. -17. -20. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -14. -26. -39. -49. -57. -63. -67. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 05/23/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 05/23/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##