* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902015 05/23/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 49 51 51 49 46 45 42 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 49 51 51 49 46 45 42 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 49 49 47 43 39 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 8 8 8 10 6 5 5 8 9 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 -1 -5 -4 -5 3 2 2 3 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 51 36 49 73 74 128 158 191 219 213 214 221 256 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.0 28.5 27.9 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 162 161 159 153 148 141 136 134 133 134 137 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 73 70 67 64 63 64 63 58 55 53 53 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 53 45 34 24 14 13 15 12 9 12 6 0 200 MB DIV 116 109 83 71 56 53 29 24 24 27 11 -1 -30 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -6 -5 LAND (KM) 2459 2394 2330 2259 2188 2042 1910 1785 1675 1558 1447 1333 1211 LAT (DEG N) 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.6 6.1 6.8 7.6 8.3 9.0 9.4 9.5 9.5 LONG(DEG W) 137.5 138.3 139.0 139.8 140.5 141.9 142.9 143.7 144.4 145.2 146.3 147.9 149.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 6 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 54 55 54 52 47 31 21 14 10 7 4 5 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 24. 26. 26. 24. 21. 20. 17. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST 05/23/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 3.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 25% is 6.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902015 INVEST 05/23/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##