* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 05/23/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 12 16 22 32 37 37 37 38 38 34 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 3 1 0 1 2 8 1 -3 -4 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 168 189 211 222 222 217 231 239 247 241 249 242 248 SST (C) 27.7 27.0 26.4 25.9 25.4 24.6 24.1 24.1 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 134 128 122 116 107 101 102 100 100 102 104 107 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 73 71 70 67 65 64 57 53 50 48 41 36 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 25 24 13 -2 -11 -9 -29 -40 -51 -47 -61 -29 6 200 MB DIV 83 79 74 71 49 35 57 47 28 10 7 25 20 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 -2 -11 -13 -12 -9 LAND (KM) 2167 2191 2202 2194 2190 2139 2035 1902 1815 1797 1843 1920 2028 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 13.0 13.7 14.3 14.9 16.0 17.0 17.6 17.9 17.7 17.4 16.9 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 128.1 129.0 129.9 130.5 131.0 131.4 131.0 129.9 129.1 128.7 129.0 129.5 130.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 8 7 5 5 5 3 1 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -7. -13. -18. -21. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -3. -11. -21. -34. -45. -54. -63. -69. -73. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 05/23/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 05/23/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##