* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 05/24/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 14 15 21 26 28 27 34 35 39 46 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -2 0 -2 2 2 0 1 3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 168 188 210 210 213 220 223 222 222 251 243 252 245 SST (C) 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.2 24.8 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.4 24.0 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 131 125 121 113 108 107 107 107 105 101 96 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 70 70 66 66 66 62 54 46 43 40 39 40 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 17 3 1 1 10 -2 -10 -26 -33 -49 -49 -59 -58 200 MB DIV 51 54 64 70 59 56 56 40 27 15 1 21 26 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 10 15 5 LAND (KM) 2349 2374 2401 2415 2419 2313 2221 2127 1998 1848 1715 1587 1490 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.4 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.5 17.3 18.0 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 130.2 131.0 131.7 132.3 132.9 133.7 134.4 135.2 136.3 137.6 138.7 139.8 140.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 9 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -10. -13. -16. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -15. -23. -31. -38. -44. -50. -56. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 05/24/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 05/24/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##