* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902015 05/24/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 26 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 26 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 26 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 7 3 5 5 11 12 18 21 23 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -3 -3 0 3 2 5 5 2 3 2 3 SHEAR DIR 81 82 78 97 166 245 277 266 254 255 248 257 249 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 156 153 149 143 136 134 131 130 128 127 127 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 60 56 57 58 60 58 55 49 50 49 51 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 19 9 4 -1 -3 -3 -5 -3 -3 -11 -11 2 200 MB DIV 73 52 37 27 27 10 1 6 14 14 10 -22 -38 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -7 -6 -9 LAND (KM) 2251 2180 2111 2033 1956 1816 1675 1534 1387 1264 1144 1041 949 LAT (DEG N) 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.3 6.6 7.4 8.3 9.2 10.1 10.8 11.4 11.9 12.2 LONG(DEG W) 139.8 140.5 141.2 141.9 142.5 143.5 144.4 145.3 146.3 147.2 148.2 149.1 150.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 51 45 37 29 23 16 10 6 2 2 5 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 2. 7. 15. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 4. 1. -2. -7. -10. -13. -15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST 05/24/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902015 INVEST 05/24/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##