* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 05/24/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 13 18 20 21 23 29 33 36 42 50 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 3 4 3 3 4 2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 173 192 200 200 214 233 241 240 252 249 254 249 252 SST (C) 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.4 26.0 25.4 25.1 25.0 24.9 24.8 24.6 24.1 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 130 126 122 114 111 111 110 109 108 102 97 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 65 65 57 51 46 43 39 40 39 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 14 8 3 6 1 -10 -23 -29 -35 -44 -47 -52 -57 200 MB DIV 65 73 74 63 61 47 37 32 11 2 5 31 20 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 6 11 8 6 LAND (KM) 2438 2453 2471 2441 2375 2278 2206 2101 1972 1827 1676 1561 1515 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.1 13.5 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.4 16.1 16.7 17.7 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 131.2 131.8 132.4 132.9 133.4 134.1 134.7 135.6 136.7 137.9 139.2 140.1 140.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 4 4 5 6 6 7 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 21 18 13 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 776 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. 17. 18. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -18. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. -2. -10. -17. -26. -34. -41. -47. -52. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 05/24/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 05/24/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##