* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 05/24/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 15 17 17 19 23 25 30 33 36 47 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 0 3 4 3 3 5 5 0 5 SHEAR DIR 172 189 200 210 220 238 246 256 256 260 252 254 254 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.7 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.2 25.0 24.8 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 129 125 122 117 116 115 115 114 111 109 104 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 65 63 64 63 59 54 48 45 42 41 42 41 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 11 13 9 0 -8 -18 -20 -31 -22 -23 -26 -28 200 MB DIV 85 79 73 67 56 33 14 13 -9 -2 16 18 15 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 1 2 8 0 -1 LAND (KM) 2488 2495 2432 2385 2338 2252 2169 2056 1919 1769 1630 1519 1449 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.4 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 132.1 132.6 133.1 133.5 133.8 134.5 135.2 136.2 137.4 138.7 139.9 140.8 141.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 6 6 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 22 16 10 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 781 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 18. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -10. -12. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 1. -6. -13. -22. -29. -35. -41. -47. -51. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 05/24/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 05/24/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##