* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 05/25/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 11 13 15 18 21 20 23 27 32 36 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 4 6 1 0 SHEAR DIR 191 202 202 223 242 246 262 253 248 237 240 234 238 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.7 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 130 129 130 129 128 129 128 124 120 118 116 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 59 56 56 54 51 46 45 45 50 50 50 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -8 -12 -15 -19 -20 -21 -21 -7 -8 -12 -9 -4 200 MB DIV 60 54 54 54 44 11 -11 2 -18 -7 -2 14 4 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -4 -5 -7 LAND (KM) 2433 2420 2408 2423 2439 2369 2236 2074 1885 1699 1542 1430 1347 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.7 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 131.8 132.0 132.1 132.3 132.6 133.5 134.8 136.4 138.2 139.9 141.3 142.3 143.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 2 3 6 7 8 8 8 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 14 10 6 6 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 23. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -15. -19. -21. -22. -22. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -8. -16. -26. -34. -39. -44. -49. -53. -55. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 05/25/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 05/25/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##