* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 05/25/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 9 10 11 13 13 11 13 20 24 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 -1 3 1 2 3 5 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 190 196 231 246 258 247 253 232 243 251 261 256 260 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.2 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 134 134 134 134 136 139 136 130 127 125 126 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 57 58 55 53 50 46 45 47 50 50 49 46 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 4 4 3 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -10 -15 -17 -17 -9 -5 2 11 8 7 12 9 200 MB DIV 49 56 48 36 26 9 24 5 0 -19 -8 -6 -16 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -3 -6 -6 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 2435 2430 2425 2448 2471 2400 2257 2083 1882 1699 1533 1402 1301 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.6 12.4 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.7 12.6 12.3 LONG(DEG W) 131.5 131.7 131.8 132.1 132.4 133.5 135.0 136.8 138.8 140.6 142.3 143.8 145.2 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 3 4 6 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 18 15 13 13 13 11 16 21 11 6 1 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. -24. -25. -26. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -23. -27. -30. -35. -39. -42. -42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 05/25/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 05/25/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##