* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 05/26/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 21 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 9 14 16 13 15 12 17 19 21 21 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -1 -2 0 1 -1 0 0 2 2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 211 227 249 258 263 245 239 223 195 225 245 248 240 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.1 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 131 131 131 132 132 133 132 129 125 123 122 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 56 54 53 51 50 48 45 47 47 48 44 45 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 4 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -21 -23 -18 -14 -11 -8 8 6 2 3 14 23 200 MB DIV 45 35 22 15 25 27 37 9 11 -7 1 -2 19 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 -4 -5 -5 -8 -7 LAND (KM) 2357 2344 2332 2347 2362 2454 2323 2156 1977 1809 1663 1551 1431 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.1 13.0 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 131.0 131.0 131.1 131.3 131.6 132.6 134.1 135.8 137.5 139.1 140.5 141.6 142.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 4 6 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 5 4 5 8 5 7 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -18. -20. -21. -22. -23. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -24. -29. -32. -36. -38. -41. -41. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 05/26/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 05/26/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##