* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 05/26/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 20 19 21 23 25 29 33 39 43 46 V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 20 19 21 23 25 29 33 39 43 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 21 20 20 21 23 24 27 29 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 12 4 2 5 6 4 1 5 7 4 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -3 -3 -2 -1 -2 -1 -3 -5 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 277 289 298 302 299 110 91 104 51 54 49 54 311 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.3 28.1 27.5 27.4 27.9 28.3 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 140 141 142 144 149 147 140 139 145 149 152 153 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 52 51 51 52 50 54 56 58 60 62 60 57 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -3 -2 2 10 24 20 22 24 32 34 25 11 200 MB DIV 8 18 29 27 39 57 46 30 0 21 -4 1 -16 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 -4 -4 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2360 2429 2499 2532 2461 2273 2066 1865 1710 1585 1478 1398 1348 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.2 11.8 11.4 11.0 10.1 9.5 9.1 8.6 8.0 7.3 6.9 6.8 LONG(DEG W) 130.7 131.3 131.8 132.7 133.6 136.0 138.6 141.2 143.6 146.1 148.9 151.7 154.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 8 10 11 13 13 12 12 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 12 19 26 26 24 28 18 21 10 12 20 26 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -6. -4. -2. 0. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 05/26/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 05/26/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##