* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 05/27/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 22 22 23 23 23 25 27 29 32 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 22 22 23 23 23 25 27 29 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 23 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 10 8 2 6 12 12 9 11 16 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -4 -2 -4 -4 -3 -3 -1 -4 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 298 303 302 294 261 153 150 159 158 151 133 139 146 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.6 27.0 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 139 141 142 144 144 140 134 132 134 136 135 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 50 48 49 47 47 51 52 55 52 52 48 46 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -5 -1 2 8 19 18 16 15 21 31 33 25 200 MB DIV 4 14 15 23 31 28 29 11 12 4 16 6 -5 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 2383 2444 2504 2491 2417 2249 2052 1876 1712 1555 1415 1308 1217 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.2 12.0 11.8 11.5 11.1 11.0 10.8 10.7 10.5 10.2 10.0 9.8 LONG(DEG W) 130.9 131.5 132.1 133.0 133.8 135.7 137.8 139.8 141.7 143.7 145.8 147.6 149.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 19 25 24 25 32 24 12 12 7 2 3 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 7. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 05/27/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 05/27/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##