* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922015 05/27/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 31 37 52 71 82 93 97 99 100 92 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 31 37 52 71 82 93 97 99 100 92 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 36 46 57 68 75 77 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 11 6 5 10 5 7 8 10 7 3 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 7 7 1 -3 -2 -3 -1 2 11 7 SHEAR DIR 53 44 26 8 355 58 39 14 354 355 313 324 231 SST (C) 30.5 30.3 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 171 169 167 166 165 162 161 160 157 153 151 146 138 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -51.5 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.1 -50.7 -50.6 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 83 80 79 79 78 81 79 77 70 66 63 64 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 12 13 15 17 21 24 29 33 34 37 36 850 MB ENV VOR 44 34 37 35 31 35 38 45 64 85 104 104 103 200 MB DIV 150 156 156 136 120 138 134 137 117 81 82 113 91 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -1 -3 -3 -4 -4 0 0 0 1 3 LAND (KM) 940 961 982 979 994 1032 1075 1117 1145 1129 1071 989 883 LAT (DEG N) 8.8 9.2 9.5 10.0 10.4 11.3 12.0 12.6 13.0 13.4 14.0 14.8 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 102.8 104.1 105.3 106.5 107.7 109.8 111.5 112.7 113.4 113.8 113.9 113.9 113.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 13 12 10 7 5 3 3 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 61 65 73 76 66 79 77 68 46 33 25 20 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. 0. 6. 15. 25. 32. 37. 39. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 21. 28. 33. 37. 41. 38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 6. 5. 5. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 11. 17. 32. 51. 63. 73. 77. 79. 80. 72. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922015 INVEST 05/27/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 147.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 143.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 3.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922015 INVEST 05/27/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##