* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 05/27/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 28 29 31 34 38 41 44 47 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 28 29 31 34 38 41 44 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 27 28 28 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 0 7 12 12 13 9 10 12 15 14 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -7 -7 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 301 142 110 121 119 120 122 103 100 103 114 114 130 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.2 27.7 27.3 27.3 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 143 145 147 147 142 138 138 142 143 143 145 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 51 49 49 52 55 57 60 57 59 56 54 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 1 5 9 21 29 29 20 29 48 51 42 27 20 200 MB DIV 18 12 18 28 35 41 22 18 9 27 15 -1 -23 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 2424 2526 2521 2428 2339 2137 1934 1759 1596 1462 1344 1254 1219 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 11.6 11.2 10.9 10.5 10.0 9.6 9.3 8.9 8.5 8.3 8.3 8.1 LONG(DEG W) 131.0 132.0 132.9 134.0 135.1 137.5 140.0 142.3 144.8 147.3 149.6 151.6 153.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 10 10 11 12 13 12 12 13 12 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 27 25 25 27 25 17 15 7 9 14 16 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 05/27/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 05/27/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##