* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922015 05/27/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 41 48 67 82 94 98 100 99 92 86 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 41 48 67 82 94 98 100 99 92 86 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 37 45 57 71 83 88 84 75 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 7 6 7 9 6 5 9 6 5 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 6 6 6 -4 -1 -1 -3 -1 6 8 6 SHEAR DIR 43 26 18 6 42 74 26 28 334 309 289 212 232 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.2 28.3 27.3 26.5 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 166 165 163 161 160 158 155 146 135 127 119 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -52.4 -51.3 -52.1 -51.2 -51.6 -50.3 -51.0 -50.3 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 80 79 79 78 80 81 78 75 70 64 59 58 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 15 16 20 22 27 30 34 36 35 36 850 MB ENV VOR 34 39 38 33 34 38 37 47 52 55 59 67 79 200 MB DIV 160 162 148 127 135 155 122 146 88 121 87 69 56 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -3 -4 -2 -5 -1 0 2 0 1 4 LAND (KM) 1019 1021 1027 1039 1058 1076 1094 1080 1042 915 810 721 637 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.4 9.8 10.3 10.7 11.6 12.3 13.1 13.9 15.2 16.3 17.3 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 104.8 106.0 107.2 108.3 109.3 111.0 112.1 112.7 112.9 113.1 113.3 113.5 113.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 11 10 8 5 4 6 6 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 67 75 72 65 72 78 77 60 39 16 1 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 33. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 12. 16. 23. 28. 33. 37. 36. 36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 23. 42. 57. 69. 73. 75. 74. 67. 61. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922015 INVEST 05/27/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 70.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 146.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 70% is 5.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 59% is 6.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 42% is 6.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 42% is 10.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922015 INVEST 05/27/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##