* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922015 05/27/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 35 43 51 67 82 91 96 95 94 88 84 V (KT) LAND 25 29 35 43 51 67 82 91 96 95 94 88 84 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 35 39 50 62 72 77 76 72 66 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 7 10 14 10 12 11 9 8 10 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 6 4 2 -2 -4 -3 1 0 6 7 6 SHEAR DIR 48 66 47 50 45 29 14 349 1 312 299 244 274 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.0 28.5 28.0 27.5 26.9 26.4 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 164 163 162 159 152 147 141 136 130 126 121 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.6 -52.3 -52.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 75 75 72 67 62 56 50 50 51 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 15 17 20 25 29 33 35 35 36 36 850 MB ENV VOR 53 48 45 38 49 64 68 87 95 104 113 109 114 200 MB DIV 182 169 157 139 126 84 90 57 62 30 55 59 21 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -5 -5 -5 -5 -2 0 0 1 2 8 11 LAND (KM) 1052 1089 1135 1161 1199 1245 1186 1135 1077 1019 967 898 831 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 8 5 4 4 4 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 68 65 75 78 73 43 22 13 10 6 17 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 6. 11. 18. 25. 30. 33. 35. 35. 35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 18. 26. 42. 57. 66. 71. 70. 69. 63. 59. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922015 INVEST 05/27/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 71.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 154.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 4.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 49% is 5.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 33% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 30% is 7.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922015 INVEST 05/27/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##