* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922015 05/28/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 38 47 60 74 83 86 85 85 80 73 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 38 47 60 74 83 86 85 85 80 73 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 41 51 60 65 64 58 51 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 11 12 7 8 6 10 9 7 11 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 3 1 -3 -3 -3 -3 1 3 4 5 3 SHEAR DIR 53 47 41 32 35 358 19 315 284 273 238 252 214 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.3 28.7 27.9 26.9 26.3 25.7 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 163 161 161 160 156 150 141 131 124 119 114 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -51.3 -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 -51.0 -51.2 -50.6 -51.0 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 74 73 75 78 79 76 69 63 59 55 55 57 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 14 16 18 22 26 30 33 36 36 34 850 MB ENV VOR 40 36 29 34 38 36 47 46 42 41 56 64 85 200 MB DIV 158 122 111 100 109 66 68 59 84 92 74 50 50 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -4 -3 -1 -4 0 -1 2 0 2 3 3 LAND (KM) 1056 1080 1104 1113 1129 1141 1125 1029 918 825 758 706 669 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 8 7 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 65 70 78 78 76 65 35 23 12 10 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 28. 31. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 20. 26. 30. 35. 35. 32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 22. 35. 49. 58. 61. 60. 60. 55. 48. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922015 INVEST 05/28/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 73.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 4.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 44% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 27% is 6.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922015 INVEST 05/28/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##