* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012015 05/28/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 47 54 68 81 89 89 84 80 76 70 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 47 54 68 81 89 89 84 80 76 70 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 37 41 45 55 64 70 69 63 56 50 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 13 9 11 13 13 14 7 10 11 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 2 -1 -4 -5 -2 0 2 5 2 1 4 SHEAR DIR 49 34 27 27 5 345 324 314 286 242 234 199 220 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.3 28.9 28.0 27.0 26.2 25.8 25.6 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 161 161 161 155 152 142 132 123 119 117 116 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -51.2 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.2 -50.8 -50.6 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 74 75 77 78 75 71 64 63 57 58 56 58 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 17 19 22 28 33 36 36 37 37 36 850 MB ENV VOR 38 30 32 38 41 42 49 46 41 49 59 64 89 200 MB DIV 131 109 104 103 74 62 65 92 46 84 79 71 38 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -4 -2 -4 -2 0 1 1 0 -1 4 0 LAND (KM) 1086 1093 1109 1126 1148 1150 1075 977 877 796 751 763 767 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 7 5 5 6 6 5 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 76 79 77 77 66 35 24 16 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 25. 27. 27. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 9. 18. 27. 30. 31. 33. 32. 30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 17. 24. 38. 51. 59. 59. 54. 50. 46. 40. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ONE 05/28/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 75.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 69% is 5.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 59% is 6.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 46% is 7.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 43% is 9.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ONE 05/28/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##