* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012015 05/28/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 48 56 63 76 82 88 80 70 67 62 51 V (KT) LAND 35 41 48 56 63 76 82 88 80 70 67 62 51 V (KT) LGE mod 35 40 45 51 56 66 72 71 65 56 48 40 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 11 13 14 13 14 14 14 19 19 15 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 2 -2 -6 -6 0 0 1 7 5 8 3 SHEAR DIR 32 20 30 12 348 334 310 297 258 230 247 241 245 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 28.9 28.2 27.4 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 161 159 157 151 144 136 128 125 122 120 116 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 -51.9 -51.0 -51.6 -50.6 -51.7 -51.3 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 75 76 78 76 77 72 68 69 63 68 71 75 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 20 21 22 26 29 35 34 33 35 35 32 850 MB ENV VOR 36 32 35 36 32 35 25 35 26 44 46 50 47 200 MB DIV 110 104 106 74 64 86 73 128 96 89 52 68 11 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 -3 -3 -1 1 4 1 -1 1 2 1 LAND (KM) 1088 1102 1124 1126 1132 1085 1016 950 914 882 868 827 795 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.9 14.8 15.7 16.5 17.3 18.0 18.7 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 110.9 111.7 112.5 113.0 113.4 114.0 114.5 114.9 115.5 116.0 116.5 116.9 117.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 78 77 74 61 44 24 16 7 8 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 18. 21. 22. 23. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 14. 19. 27. 26. 25. 29. 29. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 21. 28. 41. 47. 53. 45. 35. 32. 27. 16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ONE 05/28/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 72% is 5.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 59% is 6.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 51% is 8.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 47% is 10.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ONE 05/28/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##