* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 05/28/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 65 71 78 86 90 87 82 73 71 62 53 V (KT) LAND 50 57 65 71 78 86 90 87 82 73 71 62 53 V (KT) LGE mod 50 59 68 75 81 88 88 80 70 59 50 42 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 18 17 19 15 15 12 14 15 14 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 0 -2 -6 -6 0 0 5 7 5 4 8 SHEAR DIR 31 40 18 356 344 336 311 266 255 230 259 232 250 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 28.7 27.9 27.2 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 160 159 157 150 141 134 128 126 124 120 118 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 77 79 78 79 77 69 70 68 69 69 76 74 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 23 24 26 29 32 34 36 35 37 35 34 850 MB ENV VOR 36 36 33 30 38 37 36 33 41 55 59 62 54 200 MB DIV 121 120 78 53 71 64 92 86 114 74 60 47 35 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -5 -4 -4 -2 2 6 0 -4 -2 0 3 LAND (KM) 1168 1183 1203 1202 1188 1126 1053 989 961 967 957 945 939 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.8 14.8 15.8 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.3 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.7 113.3 113.7 114.0 114.7 115.2 115.7 116.3 117.0 117.7 118.2 118.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 74 71 60 47 35 17 11 3 10 8 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 8. 14. 19. 23. 25. 24. 28. 25. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 21. 28. 36. 40. 37. 32. 23. 21. 12. 3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 05/28/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 22% is 5.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 05/28/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##