* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 05/29/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 67 73 80 84 88 90 85 73 68 62 57 50 V (KT) LAND 60 67 73 80 84 88 90 85 73 68 62 57 50 V (KT) LGE mod 60 70 78 85 89 92 87 77 66 56 48 41 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 17 20 14 16 9 14 8 12 7 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 -3 -4 -1 3 3 10 7 4 1 1 SHEAR DIR 40 24 15 3 353 325 308 289 232 251 251 248 251 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.2 27.5 27.0 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.6 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 157 154 150 145 137 132 128 124 120 117 116 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.7 -50.7 -51.5 -51.0 -51.6 -51.0 -51.8 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 77 77 76 75 72 66 67 66 65 66 62 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 25 26 29 29 31 35 35 33 35 34 34 32 850 MB ENV VOR 35 37 36 42 43 36 54 45 62 68 75 69 69 200 MB DIV 132 75 64 63 61 56 73 51 66 49 25 2 -13 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -5 -4 -2 -2 3 0 2 -2 1 1 2 LAND (KM) 1218 1239 1245 1226 1209 1153 1101 1090 1119 1144 1205 1285 1379 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.2 14.1 15.2 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.5 17.7 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.7 114.4 114.8 115.2 115.8 116.6 117.4 118.4 119.5 120.9 122.1 123.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 67 52 34 25 18 8 4 18 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 6. 8. 13. 19. 20. 16. 19. 19. 18. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 20. 24. 28. 30. 25. 13. 8. 2. -3. -10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 05/29/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 05/29/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##