* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 05/29/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 67 71 73 78 78 75 66 64 59 54 48 V (KT) LAND 60 63 67 71 73 78 78 75 66 64 59 54 48 V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 68 71 72 72 67 61 54 47 41 37 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 17 17 16 12 7 7 7 4 8 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -6 -4 0 2 6 11 8 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 30 21 6 360 351 328 293 224 225 248 239 284 300 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.1 28.8 28.4 27.7 27.2 26.8 26.3 26.0 25.7 25.5 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 154 151 147 139 134 130 125 122 119 117 118 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.2 -51.1 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 73 68 66 64 65 61 63 62 59 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 27 28 28 33 34 35 34 36 34 34 31 850 MB ENV VOR 33 33 37 40 40 45 48 57 76 80 88 74 62 200 MB DIV 91 74 56 63 54 70 81 83 54 12 18 -6 -32 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -1 0 1 6 2 0 0 3 -2 7 LAND (KM) 1242 1246 1217 1194 1176 1132 1101 1120 1148 1213 1284 1396 1509 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.4 12.9 13.4 13.8 14.7 15.6 16.3 16.8 17.2 17.6 17.8 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.2 114.7 115.2 115.7 116.4 117.1 118.1 119.3 120.7 122.0 123.5 125.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 56 39 25 16 10 5 2 9 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 12. 16. 18. 15. 19. 17. 15. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 13. 18. 18. 15. 6. 4. -1. -6. -12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 05/29/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 05/29/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##