* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 05/29/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 66 69 71 75 72 68 62 54 48 43 37 V (KT) LAND 60 62 66 69 71 75 72 68 62 54 48 43 37 V (KT) LGE mod 60 61 63 64 64 62 57 51 45 39 35 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 15 16 14 11 10 8 11 14 12 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 0 0 2 1 8 7 0 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 22 10 9 358 346 296 280 279 286 300 303 294 334 SST (C) 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.4 26.8 26.3 26.0 25.6 25.3 25.2 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 154 150 146 142 136 130 126 122 118 115 114 108 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.2 -51.4 -50.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 76 75 71 67 64 65 64 61 60 59 56 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 29 30 31 35 35 36 37 36 34 33 30 850 MB ENV VOR 40 45 48 46 33 51 46 70 69 83 72 74 54 200 MB DIV 87 81 69 65 62 96 67 62 7 24 8 -27 -13 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -2 0 2 11 3 4 3 3 0 2 1 LAND (KM) 1266 1236 1209 1184 1163 1141 1136 1163 1228 1310 1395 1490 1595 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.3 15.2 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.4 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 114.4 114.9 115.4 115.9 116.3 117.2 118.1 119.4 120.9 122.4 123.8 125.4 126.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 8 8 7 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 37 25 15 10 6 4 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 13. 15. 16. 18. 16. 14. 12. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 11. 15. 12. 8. 2. -6. -12. -17. -23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 05/29/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 05/29/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##